[By Teum Mezgebo]
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) power struggle to remove Getachew Reda from the interim presidency has backfired spectacularly against it. After the TPLF has dismantled the interim administration and engaged in a seal campaign in Eastern and Southern Tigray, it finds itself sidelined by Aby Ahmed with an unusual and unexpected political manoeuvre, asking the people of Tigray to nominate a new president for Tigray via an email to his office. Abiy Ahmed is outfoxing the TPLF to make it irrelevant and degrade its political influence in Tigray and giving him plenty of opportunities to reengineer his unfinished genocidal project against the people of Tigray.
The TPLF’s actions to control power by force with its seal campaign political fiasco in the name of enforcing the “constitutional order and rule of law” may result in shortening its political life. The TPLF’s political ignorance can also inevitably bring another genocidal war to Tigray. The people of Tigray do not deserve this kind of political humiliation resulting from the ill-thought coup done by the TPLF against the interim administration it established itself. The TPLF has evidently proved itself that it has never struggle for the Tigrayan people’s national interest, freedom, liberty, and democracy. The TPLF has nothing left in its bag to rescue its political power.
The TPLF’s miscalculation is triggering a crisis in Tigray. The federal government is taking measures against the TPLF faction led by Dr Debretsion, which already blocked the FM radio bank account, stopped fuel deliveries and froze some TDF generals assets. The people of Tigray do not want another siege and war but peace. Repeatedly the TPLF has demonstrated that it is not fighting for the return of IDPs and the occupied territories but to save itself and regain power by any means. The TPLF is ignoring the demands of the people, and its legitimacy is being questioned. Every time a crisis looms, the TPLF publicly denies its egregious mistakes and runs a campaign of lies, accusations and slanders, scapegoating its political opponents.
The violent attacks and human rights abuses against TIRA supporters have shown the TPLF squanders the people’s hopes and demands for peace and security, justice and accountability. It is advisable for the TPLF leadership to restore TIRA urgently. There is no need to add fuel to exacerbate the political crisis in Tigray. The TPLF should extinguish the political turmoil it has ignited before the situation becomes out of control, inviting a second genocidal war, which Tigray doesn’t need.
The TPLF faces a critical juncture to redefine its role in the evolving political landscape of Tigray as well as of Ethiopia. With ongoing negotiations and a desire for reconciliation, the TPLF must navigate complex political dialogue with both the federal government and regional opposition parties to ensure the political stability and unity of Tigray. In these critical moments, the TPLF must stop resorting to desperate measures, attempting to galvanise support through impassioned rhetoric and promises of reform. This kind of mischievous political advantage will not help the TPLF to bounce back from its political failures.
What can the TPLF do in its last hours to save itself from mutiny? How can the TPLF resurrect its political failures and rally the youth to support it? To start, firstly, the TPLF must apologise to the people for its repeated past and present wrongdoings. Secondly, the people are demanding peace and development, not war. Addressing the grievances and listening to the Tigrayan people’s demands are the courses of action it must take to stabilise the situation.
What if the TPLF makes an alliance with Shaebia (PFDJ) and Amhara Fano to continue its struggle against Abiy Ahmed? The alliance with Shaebia and Fano will anger the people of Tigray due to the atrocity crimes they have committed and are still committing in occupied Tigray territories. Both Shaebia and Fano are threats to Tigray now and in the future, and they are not trustworthy. Additionally, the TPLF will be seen as a menace to peace and a threat to the US and other countries national interests. Abiy is already winning the US, UK, EU, and Israel to his side diplomatically. Tigray will lose support both diplomatically, economically and politically. The TPLF can’t afford to enter into conflict with countries that have a national interest in Ethiopia. The alliance can be dangerous for Tigray by any measure.
What if the TPLF carries on with its political ideology without reforming it? The people of Tigray want change from the repressive rule of the last 33 years. They want freedom, accountability, democracy, good governance and the rule of law to flourish in Tigray. If the TPLF wants to carry on with its repressive political ideology unchanged, the people may remove it from power by force. The mass protest in Adigrat on Thursday, March 28, 2025, indicates how the people are completely dissatisfied with TPLF handling the Pretoria peace agreement. The people want peace and development, not war and destruction. If the TPLF goes against the people’s wishes, it may face sustained mass revolt and undignified resignation. That would be inevitable.
To overcome the political failures, the TPLF must acknowledge its past mistakes and apologise to the people of Tigray unreservedly first, followed by the fundamental reform to its political ideology. This reform should prioritise the empowerment of the Tigrayan people by establishing mechanisms for accountability and transparency, ensuring that the voices of all Tigrayans are heard and valued. Only through such comprehensive changes can the TPLF hope to rebuild trust and create a resilient and all-inclusive political landscape that genuinely reflects the aspirations of the Tigrayan people.
Stability will depend not only on political strategy but also on addressing the deep-rooted grievances of the Tigrayan people. As the TPLF attempts to rebuild trust and foster unity, it may need to adopt a more all-inclusive approach that prioritises dialogue, reconciliation and collaboration over confrontation and slander. This shift could pave the way for a more sustainable peace and political stability, allowing for the participation of various opposition parties in shaping a shared vision for Tigray’s future. By embracing a broader coalition, the TPLF can heal the divisions it has created and repair the damage it has done to the unity of Tigrayans, ultimately strengthening the voices of the people to be heard in the political process and decision making as a whole.
This inclusive political landscape must address the past grievances and accountability for human rights abuses committed by the TPLF to foster unity, reconciliation and cooperation among diverse communities within Tigray. The TPLF must also prepare to accept accountability for how it has handled the genocidal war and the Pretoria peace agreement. By doing so, the TPLF can lay the groundwork for a sustainable peace and reconciliation that promotes development and prosperity for all Tigrayans. This way, the people of Tigray can forgive the TPLF for its acknowledgement of wrongdoings and governance failures in Tigray and beyond.
However, whether these efforts can truly resonate with a populace increasingly disillusioned by the TPLF 33 years of repression and good governance failures remains to be seen. With these uncertainties, the TPLF may find it difficult to turn around its political fortune if it is not carefully handling the political dialogue and reconciliation with all different spheres of political parties and the people as they are the principal stakeholders in Tigray.
The challenge lies not only in winning back trust but also in demonstrating a genuine commitment to change, rather than merely seeking temporary political gain. As the situation unfolds, the TPLF must navigate a complex landscape of public sentiment, where past grievances loom large and the demand for authentic, nationalist and visionary leadership grows ever more pressing. The need for transparent political dialogue and inclusive governance will be paramount if the TPLF is to regain its legitimacy and the people’s trust. The TPLF must believe in a fair and transparent election process to hold power. Engaging with diverse community voices and addressing historical injustices will be critical steps towards fostering a sense of belonging, unity and progress in Tigray.
Furthermore, promoting an environment of political dialogue and reconciliation with opposition parties will be essential for rebuilding trust among the various factions within Tigray. Only through collective efforts and a commitment to justice, accountability, and democracy can we all contribute to truly healing Tigray and move forward together. With these efforts we can build an inclusive and prosperous Tigray where the voices of all Tegaru are heard and respected. As Tigrayans embark on this journey of healing, it is crucial that we remain united in our pursuit of a peaceful and prosperous future. This united front will strengthen our resolve and inspire hope for the next generation, ensuring that the lessons learnt from the past mistakes and the genocidal war lead to a prosperous and more harmonious coexistence among different political opinions and beliefs.
It is imperative that we celebrate our shared vision and collaboration to rebuild Tigray while recognising the unique contributions of each Tigraway/Tigrawit, ultimately paving the way for sustainable freedom, peace, security, democracy, and development. This inclusive approach not only fosters unity but also empowers Tigrayans to contribute meaningfully to good governance and development. As diverse perspectives come together, the potential for innovative solutions to Tigray’s developments increases, further solidifying the foundation for lasting peace and prosperity.
It is crucial for the political parties and community members to collaborate and engage in dialogue, ensuring that every voice is valued and every concern addressed. By doing so, we can build a resilient Tigray that not only overcomes past divisions but also paves the way for a brighter future for all Tigrayans. The collaborative approach and a united effort can lead to sustainable peace, security, democracy, and economic developments that can improve quality of life for every Tigrayan.