[By Tigray Media Watch Digital Intelligence Monitoring Group, Mekele, Tigray, 10 January 2025]
Introduction
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has recently taken an unprecedented and perplexing step by aligning itself with the Eritrean regime led by Isaias Afewerki—a government long regarded as hostile toward Tigray and accused of grave human rights violations, including genocide against the Tigrayan people. This unexpected and contradictory alliance raises pressing questions about the TPLF’s strategic motives, ideological coherence, and future political trajectory.
This report provides a critical evaluation of the TPLF’s actions, examining the historical context, strategic calculations, leadership crises, and psychological dynamics underpinning this controversial decision. It also highlights the broader implications for Tigray and the Horn of Africa region.
1. Historical Context and Ideological Transformation
The TPLF and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) once shared a cooperative alliance during their struggle to overthrow Ethiopia’s Derg regime, culminating in Eritrea’s independence and the TPLF’s rise to power in Ethiopia in 1991. However, this alliance unravelled following the 1998–2000 Eritrean-Ethiopian War, which centred on border disputes, particularly over the town of Badme.
The resulting hostility led to decades of animosity, marked by mutual accusations, military standoffs, and ideological divergence. Against this historical backdrop, the TPLF’s sudden reconciliation with Eritrea appears not only contradictory but deeply troubling.
Key Questions:
- How does the TPLF rationalise collaborating with a regime responsible for inflicting suffering on Tigrayans during the recent genocidal war?
- Is this partnership a temporary tactical manoeuvre, or does it signal a more profound ideological realignment?
2. Strategic Calculations: A Tactical Gamble or Existential Desperation
The TPLF’s new alignment with Eritrea might reflect a calculated effort to consolidate power or navigate internal and external threats. Yet this move undermines its moral legitimacy, particularly given Eritrea’s role in destabilising the region and its documented human rights atrocities.
Eritrea’s regime has been widely condemned for exporting instability by supporting insurgent groups and violating human rights.
The Eritrean military’s involvement in the Tigray genocidal war, characterised by massacres, sexual violence, and ethnic cleansing, stands as one of the most egregious examples of state-sponsored brutality.
By associating with such a regime, the TPLF risks alienating its base, damaging its credibility, and exacerbating its leadership crisis.
This strategic shift may reflect desperation rather than strength—a last-ditch attempt to secure short-term survival at the expense of long-term legitimacy. However, such decisions often lead to political self-destruction, raising the spectre of irrelevance for the TPLF.
3. Leadership Crisis and Internal Fragmentation
The TPLF’s refusal to reconcile with Tigray’s Interim Government and respected figures like General T sadkan Gebretensae suggests internal discord and a leadership vacuum. Rather than seeking unity and stability within Tigray, the TPLF’s decision to align with Eritrea signals deeper fractures within its ranks.
The lack of cohesive leadership and vision within the TPLF reflects ideological disarray and strategic confusion. Hardline elements within the party appear to dominate decision-making, prioritising survival tactics over long-term governance strategies. Alienating credible figures and sidelining moderates further entrenches divisions within Tigrayan political circles.
This fragmentation raises urgent questions about whether the TPLF can remain a viable political force or whether it faces imminent collapse under the weight of its contradictions.
4. Stockholm Syndrome in Political AlliancesThe TPLF’s alignment with Eritrea, despite its historical enmity and Eritrea’s recent genocidal actions, evokes comparisons to Stockholm Syndrome—a psychological condition in which captives develop sympathy for their captors.
The TPLF’s paradoxical alliance may reflect a distorted survival instinct, born out of prolonged pressure and isolation. This behaviour could be interpreted as an attempt to neutralise perceived external threats by appeasing a former adversary. Such patterns of behaviour often emerge in weakened organisations struggling to redefine their identity amid crises.
This phenomenon underscores the depth of the TPLF’s political decline, suggesting an organisation adrift and increasingly vulnerable to manipulation by external forces.
5. The Paradox of Betrayal: Abandoning the Tigrayan Cause
By forging ties with Eritrea, the TPLF risks being perceived as complicit in the suffering of its own people. This betrayal strikes at the heart of its historical identity as a defender of Tigray and raises profound ethical questions about its current trajectory.
The TPLF’s actions alienate its grassroots support base, which has endured immense hardship during the Tigray War. This betrayal accelerates the TPLF’s erosion of credibility, weakening its capacity to represent Tigrayan interests. Aligning with a regime accused of genocide risks irreparably damaging the TPLF’s legacy and moral authority.
Critical Questions for Reflection
1. Why has the TPLF aligned itself with a regime historically and presently hostile to Tigray?2. What internal dynamics within the TPLF explain this shift while rejecting reconciliation with the Interim Government?
3. How does the TPLF justify its collaboration with Eritrea in light of well-documented atrocities committed against Tigrayans?
4. Is the TPLF’s leadership exhibiting symptoms of political Stockholm Syndrome, leading to irrational alliances?
5. What are the broader implications of this alliance for Tigray’s political future and stability in the Horn of Africa?
The Endgame
The TPLF’s current trajectory reveals a party in crisis—ideologically fragmented, strategically inconsistent, and morally compromised. Its alignment with Eritrea signals not only desperation but also the potential disintegration of its political relevance.
The year 2025 could mark a defining moment in the region’s history—a reckoning for both the TPLF and Eritrea’s regime under Isaias Afewerki. Whether this leads to renewed resistance, political reformation, or further collapse remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is the urgent need for genuine leadership and realignment with the aspirations of the Tigrayan people.
The TPLF’s alliance with Eritrea marks a dangerous gamble that threatens to erode its legacy, alienate its base, and deepen instability in the region. Moving forward, Tigrayans and their allies must demand accountability, clarity, and a renewed commitment to justice and self-determination.